Only a couple days after posting our original predictions and the Weekend Warrior is still rather apprehensive about nailing down a prediction for Shrek the Third, because it's really very much an anomaly even in this summer of sequels and threequels. After all, it is the only animated film to have a second theatrical sequel--something that can't even be said about The Lion King which had a bunch of DVD-only sequels--though excitement just doesn't seem to be as high for the third Shrek movie as there was for the sequel three years ago.
You can read the rest of my late week analysis after the...
1. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks) - $107.8 million N/A
2. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $30.0 million -49%
3. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $5.3 million -46%
4. Georgia Rule (Universa) - $4.0 million -42%
5. Disturbia (DreamWorks) - $3.1 million -35%
6. Fracture (New Line) - $1.7 million -44%
7. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $1.5 million -55%
8. The Invisible (Touchstone) - $1.1 million -46%
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $1 million -42%
10. Meet the Robinsons (Disney) - $.85 million -52%
So far, Shrek the Third isn't even coming close to the stellar reviews of the first two movies, just 45% Rotten something which won't keep kids from wanting to see it, but might put off the more cynical adults and teens who might be fine waiting to see it, possibly even on DVD. Oddly, after Shrek 2's widest release was broken by Spider-Man 3 a few weeks ago, Shrek the Third is opening in around 40 fewer theatres than the previous movie. With that in mind, we're keeping the prediction the same, which is just slightly below the three-day opening take of Shrek 2, though it's very likely to make more than $100 million this weekend regardless of anything else.
At the same time, Spider-Man 3 adds 72 theatres to up the current record for widest release to 4324, which is odd since it had such a huge drop-off last weekend and is dropping how much it makes each progressive day. It's one of the few theatre increases this weekend as many of the returning movies are losing 500-1,000 or more theatres. Warner Bros.' Lucky You is the biggest loser, dropping over 2,000 theatres in Week 3 while Disney's Meet the Robinsons gives up nearly 700 theatres to the new family film and will probably take one of the bigger hits this weekend, though still likely to remain in the Top 10.
Next week, it's all about Memorial Day and the third threequel of the summer, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which is looking to set a new record for the holiday weekend as it tries to regain face after losing a number of its box office records to Spider-Man 3 a couple weeks back. We'll have a full analysis of it next week, but right now, $150 million over the four-day weekend seems to be a given, and it could make as much as $160 million or even more. Also, Lionsgate will be releasing William Friedkin's Bug, a movie being marketed as a horror-thriller but is really more of a psycological drama. Either way, it was well-received at last year's Cannes Film Festival and it stars Ashley Judd, a once hot box office star who hasn't been doing very much lately. (She recently starred in Joey Lauren Adams' indie Come Early Morning.) It probably will cap off around $6 million for the four-day weekend as it does most of its business on Friday.
Check back next week for a look at these two movies and all the other new movies in limited release.
Comments (2)
Hmmm I think that Shrek 3 will do a little better than that only because of the turnout to the second film. How much better, I'm not completely sure.
As for Pirates... well I basically hated the second film so I have no good feelings about the upcoming third one. With that being said, I think its going to do extremely well BUT it won't top Spiderman 3 unless it opens in more theaters. There's a chance it might have a higher per-theater average though so who knows really?
Posted by DeeDee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.comingsoon.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
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May 20, 2007 12:20 PM
It's going to be hard to compare PIrates 3 to Spider-Man 3 because the former is opening in a four-day holiday weekend... I doubt it will make 151 million in the three day part of it, not after opening on Thursday anyway.
Posted by EDouglas![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.comingsoon.net/blog/nav-commenters.gif)
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May 21, 2007 7:36 AM