The biggest change is that after seeing the drop over the last few weekdays, it's obvious that Spider-Man 3 will have an even greater drop in its second weekend, even if the four new movies shouldn't offer any competition for the top slot. Originally, I had pegged it to make more than $72 million in its second weekend, which would put it in line for a new second weekend weekend, currently held by Shrek 2, but that probably won't happen due to the general malaise towards the movie. Hopefully, it won't drop more than 60% based on the bad word-of-mouth that followed opening weekend, though the people who haven't seen the movie (there are a lot out there) are more likely to be hearing the positive spin of how Spider-Man 3 set all sorts of records, which could get them interested in seeing it this coming weekend. Still, we're probably looking at a sub-$70 million second weekend, as it comes close to $250 million in ten days.

Since posting the column, I've seen 28 Weeks Later and wasn't too impressed--for those who missed it, here's my review--but I still think there's enough interest and demand from fans of the movie and enough positive reviews that it'll be a first choice for most of the regular moviegoers who've already seen Spider-Man 3. With 300 more theatres than the estimate, it looks likely to make more than $16 million in its opening weekend.

Universal's Georgia Rule has a new roadblock to overcome, that being the latest video on YouTube showing its star LIndsay Lohan snorting coke, and though her character in Georgia Rule is similarly troubled, this could hurt the movie even more among the female moviegoing audience that might be losing respect for the young actress. At least it still has Jane Fonda and Felicity Huffman, who have been doing the talk show rounds, talking about how great Lindsay is. (Lohan herself was on Letterman apologizing for her behavior.) Will that work? Maybe, though the movie's still going to end up in third place, at best.

Larry the Cable Guy's Delta Farce really hasn't popped and the only thing going for it this weekend is that it's a comedy in a marketplace where there is no other. Same can be said for the Weinstein's The Ex, which winds up in just over 1,000 theatres and will wind up somewhere in the bottom half of the Top 10.

As far as next week, there's only one new movie in wide release, but it's a doozy, being DreamWorks Shrek the Third, bringing back the voice cast from the first two movies and adding the likes of Justin Timberlake and SNL vets Cheri Oteri, Amy Poehler and Maya Rudolph as new characters. It will easily take the #1 spot next weekend, though there's some question if it can replicate the success of Shrek 2, which opened with $108 million on the same weekend three years ago before going on to become the third highest grossing movie domestically with $441 million.

That's a huge amount of people going to see the previous sequel and with the last strong family film being Disney's Meet the Robinsons which opened over a month ago and is on its way out of the Top 10, there's room for Shrek the Third to do a lot of business next weekend, even if it will be fighting for screens with Spider-Man 3 and even moreso when Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End opens the week after next. Reviews will probably be mixed to negative (see this week's Battle Cry), but they rarely matter for a long-awaited family movie like this one.

Check back next Tuesday for my prediction on Shrek the Third, as well as my full analysis of why it might do better or worse than the previous movie.