Completely exhausted from this week's ShoWest Convention but wanted to get in a last minute update, even if theater counts aren't that different from earlier in the week. Apparently, the new The Incredible Hulk trailer is debuting with Neil Marshall's Doomsday and is being advertised as such, and while that might account for some of the movie's business this weekend, it's still not looking like the strongest new movie of the weekend. Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro is losing a significant amount of theaters this weekend and is likely to drop dramatically for the second weekend in a row.

Updated Predictions -

1. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) - $48.3 million N/A (same)

2. 10,000 BC (Warner Bros.) - $14.2 million -61% (+ .6 million)

3. College Road Trip (Disney) - $7.9 million -42% (same)

4. Never Back Down (Summit) - $7.4 million N/A (+ .5 million)

5. Doomsday (Universal) - $5.9 million N/A (+ .3 million)

6. Vantage Point (Sony) - $4.2 million -43% (- .2 million)

7. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million -42% (+ .1 million)

8. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $2.7 million -53% (- .2 million)

9. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $2.4 million -48% (same)

10. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.3 million -43% (+ .1 million)

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where we planned a somewhat streamlined column to allow the Warrior to cover ShoWest in Las Vegas, but the world of Hollywood doesn't stop just because the Warrior is partying working away from home base, and this weekend sees one more chance for the box office to rebound after a number of bad weeks with disappointing showings.

The last hope of the winter/spring season might be the animated Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox) featuring the voices of Jim Carrey and Steve Carell--reunited for the first time since facing off in Bruce Almighty--and the combination of their talent with the popular source material, a desirable G-Rating and the lack of strong kid and family material currently in theaters should make this another significant hit from the makers of the Ice Age movies. $40 million should be a foregone conclusion, and it's likely to push its way to $50 million, though it might be hard for it to do much more than that this weekend. One can expect it will make a lot of money over the next few weeks, especially with schools out for spring break and the long Easter weekend approaching.

For the young guys trying to catch something that might wash the sour taste of 10,000 BC out of their palates, there'll be two choices, the martial arts action-drama Never Back Down (Summit Entertainment) and Neil (The Descent) Marshall's third film, the apocalyptic action thriller Doomsday (Universal Pictures), which should split up audiences, although the lack of star power should keep either from making more than $7 million over the weekend, even if that's enough to get at least one of them into the Top 5.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 14 - 16" »

Once again, there are very few changes in the last few days to my earlier predictions although Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B. C. is not getting the over 3,500 theaters I expected, even though the buzz on the movie and the strong ad campaign should bring in enough curious young moviegoers to bring in $40 million this weekend even if its heavily frontloaded to Friday. Everything else is pretty much the same with Martin Lawrence's family comedy College Road Trip probably doing better than anyone expects and Jason Statham's The Bank Job bombing.

Updated Predictions -

1. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) - $41.8 million N/A (down .5 million)

2. College Road Trip (Disney) - $20.3 million N/A (down .2 million)

3. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $7.8 million -48% (down .2 million)

4. Vantage Point (Sony) - $7.1 million -45% (same)

5. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) - $5.6 million (up .3 million and one spot)

6. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $5.4 million -38% (same but down one spot)

7. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $4.7 million -42% (same)

8. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $3.9 million -49% (down .2 million)

9. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $3.2 million -44%

10. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $2.7 million -40%

-- Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $1.8 million N/A

And after the jump, you can read my mini-review of 10,000 B.C..

Continue reading "WW Updated 3.6.08" »

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where a dismal end to the month of February leads to a more hopeful launch to the month of March with three new movies offering a wide variety of genres, star power and effects-laden action, something for everyone essentially, although Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) will probably take a big chunk of the younger male audience that want to see cavemen fighting mammoths and sabretooth tigers. Or at least that's the hopes of Warner Bros. who are taking a big chance by opening what would normally be a big-budget summer movie at the beginning of March.

Disney isn't taking nearly as big a chance by teaming Martin Lawrence and Raven-Symoné in the G-rated College Road Trip, which should continue their string of spring comedy hits, as it does better than Lawrence's last movie Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins in bringing in Lawrence's African-American fanbase but a lot more families as well due to its rating and the Disney label.

Last but not least, Jason Statham returns to his British crime-drama roots with The Bank Job (Lionsgate), a heist flick loosely based on a famous British bank robbery, but despite Statham's popularity with Crank and the "Transporter" movies, this probably won't have the same appeal to Statham's video game enthusiast audience, so it'll probably be more for older guys, and its moderate release might keep it somewhere in the middle of the Top 10.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: March 7 - 9" »

Nothing really worth noting although this looks like it will be another slow weekend with Will Ferrell's getting less theaters than we originally expected and the recent announcement of New Line merging with Warner Bros. might be an omen for how Time Warner thinks their big spring movie will do this weekend. Sony's period drama The Other Boleyn Girl and the romantic fantasy Penelope will probably do slightly better only because there's very little else to see but we probably can't expect anything too impressive from any of the movies.

Updated Predictions -

1. Semi-Pro (New Line) - $31.1 million N/A (down $1.6 million)

2. Vantage Point (Sony) - $13.0 million -44% (up .5 million)

3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $8.9 million -32%
(same)

4. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $6.5 million -49% (up .1 million)

5. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $5.4 million N/A (up .5 million and one spot)

6. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $5.2 million -46% (up .1 million, down 1 spot)

7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) $3.8 million -11% (same)

8. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $3.7 million -44% (same)

9. Penelope (Summit) - $3.3 million N/A (up .4 million and one spot)

10. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $3.0 million -40% (down .2 million and one spot)

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, where the month of February ends with an extra day thanks to Leap Year, and another guaranteed #1 movie as Will Ferrell takes on basketball in the '70s retro-comedy Semi-Pro (New Line) along with a great supporting cast including Woody Harrelson, Andre Benjamin, Maura Tierney, and Will Arnett. The key difference between this and other Ferrell comedies is that it's his first R-rated wide release since his breakout performance as Frank the Tank in Old School, which might keep some of Ferrell's younger teen fans from seeing it. Then again, Ferrell has plenty of 17 and older male fans who'll probably dig seeing him in this sort of sports vehicle. The question is whether his first movie for New Line since Elf, his biggest movie to date, will match or best his 2007 sports comedy Blades of Glory.

Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson co-star in the period drama The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) about two of the six wives of King Henry the VIII (here played by Eric Bana). Based on the popular book by Phillipa Gregory, its main appeal will be to women over 25, an audience who's fairly neglected right now, though only opening in just over a thousand theaters will keep it on the outskirts of the Top 5.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 29 - March 2" »

It's that time of year again and after months of build-up and predictions, it's time to put up or shut up as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces their film awards in 25 categories, some which have already been decided by the consensus of critics, pundits and journalists who think they know how things will go...and frankly, even yours truly has some doubts about his predictions considering how many variables are involved this year. Regardless, I'm here all night, talking about the show as it airs and kibbitzing with anyone who wants to chat during the awards, cheer the winners, boo the Academy's errors, etc.

Tip: Comments on this blog seem to not be working, so the best way to follow along if you want to comment is to have two browser windows open, one with this page, which you can refresh to see when new things are added on my part (since they'll be at the top), and another with this page for posting comments. Hope this helps and please feel free to post questions if you're having any problems.

Once the show begins, I'll keep a running tally of winners at the top of the blog below the jump for those checking in late and then my posts will start with the newest ones at the top.

Continue reading "Live Bloggin' the Oscars!" »

Not too much has changed since Tuesday, just a bit of reshuffling of the drop-offs from President's Day weekend, although it still looks like Charlie Bartlett and Larry the Cable Guy's Witless Protection will be fighting it out for bomb-o'-the-week with neither looking good to make it into the Top 10. There's definitely interest in Michel Gondry's Be Kind Rewind among young dudes, although opening in just 808 theaters could limit how far it might go and the Top 5 might be too high for it to reach. Sony's Vantage Point is still going to be well ahead of everything else on Friday and for the weekend, though it might have a significant drop-off on Sunday for the Oscars. Certainly, the lack of strong reviews won't help the movie do a huge amount of business this weekend but still bring in the curious.

Oh, one late addition: the concert movie U2 3D expands from 40 theaters to 678 theaters tomorrow, but it will still probably end up outside the Top 10 with roughly $2 million.

Updated Predictions -

1. Vantage Point (Sony) - $21.8 million N/A (up .5 million)

2. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $14.0 million -49% (down .1 million)

3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $12.5 million -35% (up .7 million)

4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $8.6 million -55% (down 1.1 million)

5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $7.8 million -41% (up .1 million)

6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $6.0 million -38% (same)

7. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $4.6 million -46% (down .3 million)

8. Be Kind Rewind (New Line) - $4.1 million N/A (up .3 million)

9. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $3.3 million -30% (up .1 mill.)

10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) -$2.8 million -39% (not listed on Tuesday)

11. Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $2.7 million N/A (up .2 million)

12. Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2.4 million N/A (down .1 million)

13 or 14. U2 3D (National Geographic) - $1.9 million 475% (not listed on Tuesday)

Well, I was going to leave things alone with my last predictions in January, because not much has changed in terms of my picks for the Oscars even with a few surprise snubs among the Guilds and somewhat of an about face by the Academy when filling in those last slots.

For instance, Joe Wright's Atonement was snubbed by most of the major guilds making one think it couldn't get a Best Picture nomination, and yet, it still got nominated in a number of categories including Supporting Actress for young Saorsie Ronan and a screenplay nomination, and the only one snubbed was director Joe Wright who many thought was the most deserving of accolades. Don't even get me started on things like Tommy Lee Jones being nominated for his performance in In the Valley of Elah rather than for the Coens' No Country for Old Men. Regardless, I was asked by AOL Moviefone to share my thoughts on the winners so I'll do the same here, and if you're around on Sunday night, please stop by the blog where I'll be posting live commentary and you can laugh at all the picks I got wrong! :)

Continue reading "The Oscar Warrior's Final Oscar Predictions" »

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior where we have a fairly easy no-brainer weekend with just one of the four new movies standing much of a chance at making it into the Top 5. Maybe that's because the ensemble thriller Vantage Point (Sony), starring the likes of Dennis Quaid, Matthew Fox and Forest Whitaker, is the only movie to be opening in more than 2,000 theatres. In fact, it's opening in over 3,000 theaters with a strong marketing campaign, which should leave it sitting pretty at the #1 spot come Sunday with very little competition from any of the other new or returning movies.

Possibly that's because all the rest of the new movies are opening in fewer than 1,500 theaters, and despite opening in nearly half that amount, Michel (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind) Gondry's new comedy Be Kind Rewind (New Line), starring Jack Black and Mos Def, should fare the best among them as it appeals to a hip young audience looking for quirky laughs and seeing what Gondry does next.

Blue collar comic Larry the Cable Guy has found a niche audience in the South and Midwest, but his latest comedy Witless Protection (Lionsgate) is getting the smallest release so far, showing that the studio might not have as much faith in the comic after last year's Delta Farce bombed. Presumably, the movie will be targeted more towards the area where Larry's fans reside, but that's still not pointing to a very big audience, especially with a much smaller marketing campaign.

Continue reading "The Weekend Warrior: February 22 - 24" »